With Spring Carnival burnout well upon us here at WHAB and Tiger-mania sweeping Australia, we thought we'd revisit Tiger's classic ESPY award speech from last year!
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
TAB...Yes they still make it...only for me!
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
GREATEST MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW EVER
Hello and welcome to the Greatest Melbourne Cup Preview Ever. Forget about your shitty newspaper previews with all their ass-sucking. Channel 7 and their vomitous coverage. WHAB is where it's at for the first Tuesday of November. Special guests include Bart Cummings and Ramzan Kadyrov. Unfortunately, Vigor couldn't be here because the VRC are softcocks. At this juncture, WHAB would like to call for a public apology to the punters from Lee Freedman for his ultimately fucked decision to run Speed Gifted in the Cox Plate rather than the Caulfield Cup, which culminated in him jarring up on the hard track and being scratched from the Melbourne Cup. Maybe you could get some airtime with your brother Richard on Channel 7 to issue this apology; look right down the camera, as if looking us in the eye...and say it like you mean it pal. But enough surliness; it's time for WHAB's Greatest Ever Melbourne Cup Preview. Ever.
1. VIEWED (9) 58 Bart Cummings /Brad Rawiller
Captain: To quote cricket commentator David Lloyd; ''e's been thar, 'e's dun thart, 'e's got tha tee shirt'. If you substitute 'thar' with 'to Flemington', 'dun thart' with 'run out the 3200m' and 'tee shirt' with 'Melbourne Cup 2008 Winner sash', then he's spot on. When Viewed won last year, he had not much form to speak of. His form is superb this time in and I am laying down a large wager on him here. According to super-dooper master trainer Cups King extraordinaire and all round racing genius Bart Cummings, he's a long shot to go back to back here, just like So You Think was a hugely surprising winner for Bart in the Cox Plate: "Sure, he won the Caulfield Cup by 2 1/4 lengths, but he was incredibly lucky. It's hard to win one Melbourne Cup, let alone two with the same horse. I'd rate him a 40/1 shot. But you never know in this game mate". Alright, enough Bart spin-doctoring already. To quote myself in our Caulfield Cup preview: "He won the Melbourne Cup last year with highly dubious form, so if his form this campaign is strong, a little piece of the Viewed/Viewed Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double at around the $120 mark will hold you in good stead, lest the Cups King clean up again.". Hope a few of you took that on board.
Professor: Not a Bart fan. Even so I can appreciate the case of Viewed. Nice Caulfield Cup run, obviously will get the 3200. Viewed is going significantly better this year than he was last year, though he has more weight and the field is a couple of notches better as well. Hard to not see Viewed in the top four.
JB: Having rewatched the Caulfield I would agree with Bart that Viewed got a very fortuitous ride on the inside along the rail. With Bart being Bart, I think that Viewed wasn't meant to win the Caulfield, but the ride opened and Rawiller took it. This horse is primed for the M' Cup. That being said, I'm not so certain that all will go to plan for B. Cummings with Viewed. Mind you, the man has a stacked field in his favour with Roman Emperor (2nd in the Caufield) and Allez Wonder (1st in the Toorak) as well. The very interesting Cummings story is indeed Allez Wonder vs Viewed. Allez Wonder is owned by Cummings whereas Viewed is owned by Tan Chin Nam - a long time business partner.
2. C'EST LA GUERRE (7) 55.5 John Sadler/Nicholas Hall
Captain: Was ticking along okay until the Caulfield Cup shocker where he apparently pulled up lame. The problem with Lloyd Williams owned horses is that no-one can ever get anything out of the man with respect to injuries. He is a spin doctor who does everything he can to the dash hopes of punters who have hit, or want to hit early markets. Though you never want to take a horse who is possibly not 100% in a two mile race, the VRC vets have passed him fit to run, so if you're needing another at nice odds to throw into your exotics, try CLG. Especially if it rains.
Professor: I haven't seen much to like in any of his runs. That being said, I'm confident of about five of these fucking hacks running a solid two miles and this is one of them.
JB: Third last year, but in considerably worse form. With this field you have to start knocking out the would be chances. Having said that I got on early for CLG to place, but not confident enough to recommend the same to you all.
3. FIUMICINO (24) 55.5 Wayne & John Hawkes/Steven King
Captain: Here's one I was thinking of throwing in my multiples until he drew the dreaded outside gate. Ran a nice Caulfield Cup for 5th at big odds. Anything under 2400m for this guy is considered nothing more than warm-up stretches so you'd think the trip would suit. However, I just watched his Sydney Cup run and he was moonwalking the last furlong. But was that crap run because he's horribly inconsistent or because he didn't get the trip? Who knows? This is also much harder than the Sydney Cup. So considering that, there's a good chance he'll be posted wide the trip, he might well be doing another Michael Jackson impersonation down the Flemington straight. If he can somehow find a handy spot, he could be a place chance.
Professor: Never sure which Fui will show up. I've recommended you good people once too often to take a piece of this at odds based on something. Something I can't remember any more, but I stay. Why do I stay?
JB: In the Caulfied this guy put a lot of work in early to go to the front, in the straight it appeared like he was keeping something back. I like this horse but don't think the Hawkes group have figured out how to win a Melbourne Cup just yet. Not in my final selections.
4. MASTER O'REILLY (16) 55 Danny O'Brien/Vlad Duric
Captain: Good finish in the Caulfield Cup from wide and deep (i.e. the really shitty part of the track). In fact, all his runs this time in have been good. 8th in this race in 2007, 4th last year, I for one won't be surprised to see him finish in the placings. And if he wins, well I took him at $21's, so I have slight overs there.
Professor: In a race that gave it every chance it didn't exactly flash home in the Caulfield Cup. That being said, every run this prep has been solid. Melbourne Cup lead-up solid. In the absence of a top field, this kind of consistent prep could be enough.
JB: Fourth last year behind Viewed. Viewed is in arguably better form than last year and Master O in worse form. That doesn't add up to M.Cup victory and I'll be having nothing of it.
5. MOURILYAN (14) 54.5 Herman Brown/Glyn Schofield
Captain: One of the unknown quantities in this year's Cup, so WHAB caught up with owner Ramzan Kadyrov, overlord of Chechnya, to try to get some inside information.
WHAB: Can I call you RK champ?
RK: No.
WHAB: Okay Mr. Kadyrov, how's Mourilyan looking for the Melbourne Cup?
RK: If he doesn't win, I kidnap and torture him shit horse.
WHAB: Right...and if he wins, how will you celebrate?
RK: I will shoot everything with gold gun and make gold horse.
WHAB: Aha...An Australian senator Bob Brown has condemned your horse being allowed to run in the Melbourne Cup given the question marks on your human rights record. What do you say to him?
RK: Fuck you pig I kill you and your family. And dogs and cats. And budgie. I take shit in his Prius.
WHAB: Easy there big fella! Any last thoughts on Tuesday's race?
RK: I've already killed who I should have killed. And I will kill all of those standing behind them, as long as I myself am not killed or jailed. I will be killing as long as I live.
WHAB: Yes, technically nothing to do with the Cup, but thanks for your time Mr. Luna..., sorry, Mr. Kadyrov...
Wow, what a fucking lunatic. Had to hightail it outta that interview! I sincerely hope this guy doesn't add the Melbourne Cup to his trophy cabinet of human skulls and gold-plated things.
Professor: Not sure what to say after that. Possibly the best of the internationals, but this year I could find 10 Guatemalan stayers better. Fuck, I could find 2 Guatemalans, dress them in a horse costume and they'd be the best of the international runners.
JB: Every year there is a beat up of the international horses that come down for this race, some just can't stand internationals full stop, some can't forgive the much hype that these horses receive for very sporadic returns. That being said, this horse may actually have the goods. A genuine 2 miler and although has been shipped out to no less than 4 different million dollar plus races in four different countries (Canada, Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai) with his best performance an 8 from 16 in the Dubai Sheema Classic, the trainers seemed to have only just realised this horse wants more than 2400. The biggest problem is that his current rides over 3200m would really only see him competive in the Melbourne Cups of the 1940s'. At $21 I will have a piece but will leave it to you if you want the whole thing!
6. ROMAN EMPEROR (15) 54.5 Bart Cummings/Hugh Bowman
Captain: Ran a great race just off the speed in the Caulfield Cup, just found one better (and how). This is one I would like to see longer odds on to get really interested. You never know if a horse will run the 3200m right out until they get there; I think that the Emperor is a year shy of running a cracking Melbourne Cup. It's hard to see him turning the tables on Viewed as he had every chance to beat him at Caulfield, and Viewed will liklely be better suited at the longer trip. The Emperor, I'm not so sure about for this year...but the way Bart's going, his runners will probably fill out the trifecta. Bart...so hot right now! Okay, that just felt weird...
Professor: A sensible bet based on its showing in the Caulfield. Best of the on-pace brigade there. Given the likelihood of some early speed I think that this race won't suit its pattern. With Daffodil at $16's, this offers no value at all.
JB: I think that the Caulfield Cup is the best we will see from this horse. I won't laugh at anyone for singing the Roman story but not where my money is.
7. ISTA KAREEM (23) 53.5 Colin Little/Luke Nolen
Captain: One I was seriously looking at until his shocking run at the Valley last start. I reckon that can be put down to the Speed Gifted-ending-hard track at the Valley. Previously he'd had 3 runs over a trip at the Valley and his worst result was a 1.5L win. He is a lot better than that run. A bit of give and I'll forgive, and throw this Sydney Cup winner in my multiples. In fact, even in the dry, I'm throwing him in and just hoping he doesn't get slopped up by the barrier.
Professor: Actually stays the trip which puts him in my top few. At a squillion to one, I'll have a little each way here.
JB: A lot to like about this horse who will miss the attention of most punters. 'Forgive last run' is a term that is loosely thrown around, but when it comes to any performance at the Valley I'm a lot more willing to forgive. Will depend on your appetite for risk but not the worst horse to have in your work sweeps and a bit of shrapnel to place.
8. CRIME SCENE (11) 53 Saeed Bin Suroor/Kerrin McEvoy
Captain: I will probably create a Crime Scene if this guy wins, as it won't make any sense, and I'm at my unpredictable best when things don't make sense. On his Geelong Cup run, he's no hope.
Professor: Here's a Crime Scene that everyone can pass. Including me. Pass.
JB: If you're looking for something here to support your plunge on this horse then keep looking. I don't like the Crime Scene and if you get in my way to the bar on Cup day talking up the Crime Scene then I will take out your knee caps.
9. MUNSEF (5) 53 Ian Williams/Zac Purton
Captain: Why does some shitty Listed Race in the UK guarantee you a fucking Melbourne Cup start? How can a horse run 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and win the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stks not make the field, yet a horse who has not raced in a Group 1, not won a Group race, and quite frankly, done sweet FA, is gifted saddlecloth 9. If the VRC had any common sense, Vigor would be in this field. You're next Gallions Reach...
Professor: I won't slop up Mun-son too much as it is ridden by the Zac-attack and looks to be some chance at running this out. Probably too one paced but not the worst.
JB: I expect this horse to be munsoned - again!
10. ZAVITE (3) 53 Anthony Cummings/Mark Zahra
Captain: One-paced fella who I spruiked for a certain place in the Saab (I refuse to call it the Lexus, Black Saab RULES!), though he didn't run there. He's moved on to bigger and better things, like the Adelaide Cup. Being honest, he ran a pretty good race in the Caulfield Cup for 9th. Still being honest, I couldn't back him to win the Melbourne Cup, even if you held a nutcracker to my balls, though he's definitely not the worst. Is going to be in a pretty handy spot from gate 3. Maybe a place chance.
Professor: Runs the trip, again that could be enough here to grundle into the prize money. And it will grundle.
JB:Definitely a place chance, but more likely 5th-9th place. I'm not betting on every horse, I recommend you do the same.
11. ALCOPOP (12) 52.5 Jake Stephens/Dom Tourneur
Captain: The only Alcopop I'll be hitting at $5.50 on Cup day is over-priced Johnnie Walker cans. His price is a bit ridiculous given that he is sharing the top line with a Melbourne Cup winner. Unproven at trip, and in a field of this class. On top of that, the connections missed the deadline to pay up for the Caulfield Cup, so I have to wonder, do they really know what they're doing? How do you forget something like that? Dum da dum dum dum. Take the $5.50 if you really want to and good luck with that fairytale.
Professor: This one has the WHAB team divided. I actually think it is good enough to win this. The Herbert Power run was pretty damn nice. $5.50 is tight for a horse that hasn't really competed with the best yet so I'll more than likely leave it out, but a really strong chance.
JB: I like the whole background fairytale of this horse, the once out rounding up sheep but now racing for the Melbourne Cup deal. I'm not betting this horse can win the Cup but would rather this story be on the front page of Wednesday's paper and not Bart Cummings. Drawn perfectly in the barriers and nicely weighted, has every chance if good enough, I jsut don't think it is.
12. HARRIS TWEED (20) 52.5 Murray & Bjorn Baker/Craig Newitt
Captain: He just hasn't come up as a 4.y.o, and it's an unfair ask for a horse which could have been a pretty handy stayer next year, but probably won't because connections asked too much of him this prep. Not sure I'd trust a guy named Bjorn to co-train my Melbourne hopeful either...
Professor: Not going well enough this prep, but like many of these it may be looking for this extra ground. At $101 it could be a sneaky place chance, but I'll need a few schooners tomorrow to really plead its case.
JB: At the end of the day, I don't think this guy will have the class to win. Could place but I prefer others. Don't expect me to be jumping around spilling my drink if this wins, furthermore, if he does win and you spill your drink on me - I will not look lightly upon the matter.
13. KIBBUTZ (8) 52.5 Jarrod McLean/Chris Symons
Captain: Okay, we're down to number 13 now, and there's been no talk of shedding skin. If Kibbutz wins, I'll go on a nude charity run around Australia, and I will take no shortcuts.
Professor: Whenever I see the Yellow and Blue hoops, I think of the evil Dr. Annenkov. Kibbutz can't win.
JB: I like Kibbutz but seriously this horse will not win. I will have a few dollars for the place but out of sentimentality. Save your money to buy your twenty seventh bevie for the day.
14. NEWPORT (18) 52.5 Paul Perry/Peter Wells
Captain: It's hard to see this guy winning when he's likely to hopelessly miss the start, throw the jockey, and then head off in the wrong direction.
Professor: Assuming he doesn't take a left turn out of the gates, this could pop up in the top four.
JB: I don't think that a horse running out of form will win this race and I know that Newport won't win this race on Tuesday.
15. WARRINGAH (17) 52.5 Chris Waller/Damien Oliver
Captain: Chris Waller has taken a leaf out of the David Hayes Book Of Soul-Lessness importing a stayer to win the Cup. I'm just about to transfer Oliver out of my Star Stable in protest. The Professor keeps telling me that this year's crop of internationals are rubbish, though I'm always wary of unknowns in racing. But I have to say, I agree with him this year. Plus Warringah reminds me of the Sea-Eagles from the NRL. There are no positives here people.
Professor: How arrogant are these fucking poms? I hereby nominate Zazabeau for the Arc de Triomphe fuckers. Yeah, Zazabeau. Eat it.
JB: This years crop of internationals/ex-internationals is horrendous, of those I like Mourilyan, not this hack. You would have to be bloody good looking for me to stand and listen to you tell me about this thing.
16. GALLIONS REACH (6) 52 Richard Yuill/Dwayne Dunn
Captain: To the connections of this horse I'd just like to say that you are the most selfish motherfuckers in the history of racing. Accepting with a horse who couldn't place in the Bendigo Cup, and had no excuses, is either insanity, or a complete lack of consideration and respect for everyone in racing. Vigor should be in this field. What, was Danny O'Brien doing the rounds with your wives? I can think of no other reason, other than revenge or spite, why you'd accept for this race. To the VRC, you supposedly have discretionary powers...so fucking USE THEM!!! Common sense has not prevailed and you look like complete twats. The only upside for this one is if you get him in your sweep...he's $1.04 favourite for the wooden spoon.
Professor: I would tear up my sweep ticket if I got this one. I think he's an absolute certainty for second last and you don't win shit for second last.
JB: I didn't have early money on Vigor, but I did have early money on other horses that missed out. I feel the Captain's pain especially when this guy will do well to beat home 1 other horse on Tuesday.
17. SPIN AROUND (4) 52 Stephen Cooper/Mark Du Plessis
Captain: I'm starting to lose it with all these unworthy internationals...the eyes are glazing over...

Professor: Let's just hope the connections enjoy the spread in the owners box. Because if the Captain ever catches them they'll never wash the taste of nuts out of their mouths.
JB: Really, is this a tax dodge for some very rich fuckers or just an excuse to travel. Something has to be done! For me it is enjoying the majority of these horses get pantsed - this horse included.
18. BASALTICO (10) 51.5 Luca Cumani/Dan Nikolic
Captain: Whereas I respect the Cumani horses, this one looks as shite as the rest of the internationals. I expect this horse to run about 19th, but being trained by Cumani, he might be able to sneak into the top 12.
Professor: The Cumani's - crazy with success think they can get just about anything up for a Melbourne Cup. Try harder next year, guys.
JB: This horse has a chance of coming circa 6th-9th but you don't make money on horses that finish 6th-9th.
19. CAPECOVER (19) 51.5 Alexander R Fieldes/Noel Harris
Captain: It's just one non-contender after another here. Looks like he tops out at 2500m. Amazingly, after his Bendigo Cup run (which was a lot better than that of Gallions Reach), Kerrin McEvoy said that this guy is top 6 material for the Melbourne Cup...I mean, there's diplomacy, and then there's ball-stroking.
Professor: Honestly not as bad as many of these, but man this field lacks depth. Could go top.. 14.
JB: No!
20. DAFFODIL (21) 51.5 Kevin Gray/Chris Munce
Captain: I was beginning to wonder if I was ever going to see a feasible Cup chance again, so thank you Daffodil. Unfortunately for the Professor, the gate might have killed her here. Nice Caulfield Cup run, but like Roman Emperor, I think she'll be a better two miler next year. Not without a chance, and by all means, include her in your multiples before any of these clownish UK horses.
Professor: One for my multiples. And, yes I mean orgasms. Nice Caulfield Cup run, probably carrying a bit too much condition there and hopefully ready to roll now. With no weight and a blistering turn of foot, the barrier will hopefully encourage the monkey to take her to the back. And of all the front page headlines on Wednesday : a) Bart b) Boss rides Changingoftheguard to glory c) the BATTLERS on Alcopop or d) The monkey goes from being sodomised by the triads in a HK jail to M Cup glory, I know what I want to read with my coffee.
JB: Best to include if for nothing else but to not have the professor in your ear for the rest of the day. But seriously has produced a few good rides, was hoping for a bit more on derby day, but most likely nothing more than a trial for the main game come Teusday.
21. SHOCKING (22) 51 Mark Kavanagh/Corey Brown
Captain: Finally did something in the Saab to justify him being a Cup chance. Before that, he'd run 2nd in the QLD Derby. My opinion is that it's just all too rushed for him; from that QLD Derby run to Melbourne Cup winner in 5 months? My hunch is that his Saab win will have taken the edge off him, having to back up 3 days later, and let's face it, he had a charmed run there.
Professor: I could talk up Hume at $40 to one after that Saab run, but I can't entertain this thing that got a charmed run at $10s. The Saab used to be called the Lean Cuisine. Fun fact. Seriously, if there is one horse in this field that I'm worried about taking my sweet $$ away it's shocking. Depending how the early races play out I may keep it safe.
JB: SAAB was a shit fight, so many horses got trapped behind a wall of shit, this horse was able to fight through. I won't bet on it, I don't recommend this horse to people I like. There are worse horses in this line up but can't see it taking out a place.
22. ALLEZ WONDER (13) 50.5 Bart Cummings/Michelle Payne
Captain: I would have thought the Toorak/Emirates double would be more his go. Faded badly in the Caulfield Cup and on that alone, you have to query him at the trip. A shame, the Emirates is such a shithouse 'Group 1', I would have unloaded on the Wonder there.
Professor: Not a chance. Was going backwards a long way from home in the Caulfield and again appears to be setting this race up on a platter for one of the stronger backmarkers - Viewed, Efficient and My Ding-a-ling. My pick for the Sandmason award - leading for maybe one mile and coming last.
JB: I've ruled a big black line through this horse - but it wouldn't surprise me. I have a few dollars on Viewed just so I won't want to stab everyone I see post race, I conceivably will do the same here but this is more an anger management strategy not a gambling one.
23. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (1) 50.5 David Hayes/Glen Boss
Captain: David Hayes' latest soul-less attempt to buy a Melbourne Cup with minimum time and effort on his part. How could he get any satisfaction by winning a Melbourne Cup with a horse he's trained for only a few months? A year or two is fair enough, but just a couple of months? Sadly this is David Hayes' idea of a fairytale Cup story. Hayes + lack of soul + Boss + foot abscess + huge international plunge = Fuck no.
Professor: The Ebor form looks good amongst the internationals. I might yield here. More than likely the best of the foreigners, well weighted and I can't believe I'm going to say this, good value.
JB: Not for me, hopefully not for the integrity of racing.
24. LEICA DING (2) 50.5 Darren Weir/Craig Williams
Captain: Won a really weak Geelong Cup and to me doesn't represent great value. The Professor knows I don't do times because there are two many variables down that path. That shit will do your head in. Looking at her 3000m win, I have not heard of any of those horses it beat. And I watch the races every week. I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure that Montahlia and Jeune Cheval are not leviathans of the turf. I'd be surprised if she wins, but a top 6 finish, even a placing, wouldn't surprise.
Professor: My out and out smoky for this race. 3200... it'll absolutely smash that. I watched and rewatched the Geelong cup and it's almost impossible not to get a little excited by a horse that sustains a run, initially on the fence and then well wide for about 800 metres. And without talking it up too much, it looked like another 800 (or 794) would be just fine. And for what it's worth, they ran the Geelong Cup 3 seconds quicker this year than last years winner Bauer. While Bauer had the big 400 metre sectional, Leica Ding came from further back and sustained an 800 metre run that to me has it in the On a Jeune stamp all over it. Viewed will be at the tail with it, so maybe the light weight will give it a chance to go with the topweight. If something wins this race at big odds, it's this guy.
JB: Well if anything is to be learned from Bauer in recent years is that the Geelong Cup isn't the worst form in the world. Leica Ding is this years Geelong Cup winner who beat home Dandaad by half a length. This horse has won at 3000m albeit at much lower level. Indeed the biggest fear for this horse is that he is yet to win at Grp 2 or higher but please note neither has Bauer. Biggest problem with this comparison is that although Leica Ding ran the Geelong Cup close to 3 seconds faster then Bauer in the previous year, Bauer's sectional was 2 seconds faster. This is my horse, this is my true Melbourne Cup gamble. I want this horse to win, I think this horse can win, my money will be on this horse to win! But safety first for the most of you punters out there, place this guy and laugh at the fools who were hanging from Bart's balls.
JB's Wrap Up
JB: I have money on VIEWED, it is the safe bet. The problem is I don't like safe betting. I like and have loaded up on LEICA DING and MOURILYAN. That's who I will be shouting out for down the Flemington straight if for nothing else but to spoil the Bart story.
Professor:
1. Viewed - I don't know why the Professor and JB are so down on Bart. Sure, he's a spin doctor, and sure it sucks when a seemingly out of form Bart horse nails your selection but I just can't be down on a guy who should have retired many years ago but is still training Melbourne Cup winners at 82 years of age. To me, that is racing at it's purest; an old codger, but still training Cup winners just for the love of racing. I fully expect him to make it 13 Cups tomorrow with a horse who in my opinion should be showing odds of $3 for this race. His Caulfield Cup win was dominant and he goes up only 1kg for a more suitable distance. I have unloaded people.
2. Master O'Reilly - Just looking like he wants the two miles this time in. All his runs this prep are sound. Should be thereabouts.
3. Roman Emperor - Tipping this guy to run 3rd has just highlighted a). the lack of depth in this year's field and b). the number of internationals that seem to be fucking hopeless on paper but that you have no real way of lining up till the race is run. Like I said, think he's a year shy of winning a Melbourne Cup, but he's better than most of these...and Bart is just so hot right now...
Others I'll work around for multiples include, C'est La Guerre, Leica Ding and Ista Kareem. Fuck the internationals. Fuck the ex-internationals. I would have been slotting Vigor into my multiples for sure.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Melbourne Cup Preview Update
Will be up around 6pm tonight...the Professor is getting through his form as slowly as Gallions Reach will run tomorrow. He's plugging...
Friday, October 30, 2009
Derby day tips: Bigger, better more satisfying.
Race 1: Banking on good some country lead-up form for my two which is always a little dicey. I get the feeling that The Comedian could be a bit special so I'll lean that way. Just so you don't think I'm really Wayne "Take Avenue each Way" Harris, my second elect is rank outsider Ruse de Guerre.
Captain's Derby Day Tips Me Hearties
Race 1: Kidnapped.
Race 2: This is the still the Saab to me. Black Saab rules! I refuse to call it the Lexus. There's too much Eddie McGuire about Lexus. No, if I call it anything else, it will be the Dalgety as it was known as prior to becoming the Saab. Nothing speaks of desperation like the Saab...as the Professor put it early in the week, "it's a B-grade shitfight". And they are all shit-fighting to sneak into the Cup with feather-weights. And emerging out of the pack from said shitfight: Hume.
Race 3: Run For Naara.
Race 4: Bloody hell, a 3yo race down the Flemington straight...anything could win this and it becomes an absolute lottery if they split. Shellscrape is a favourite of mine and will appreciate any give out of the ground. Headway's last run was super and the straight six might be up her alley, so I'll go with those two and we'll see what happens.
Race 5: Thankfully Sir Slick puts some pace into this race for the backmarkers, i.e. the entire rest of the field. Think Viewed is going well enough to win this, even at a trip which is probably a bit short for him. That said, if you like Viewed for the Cup, hit him today...he'll shorten dramatically if he runs well, with the possibility that Efficient may be out of Cup contention. You never know with Lloyd Williams' spin doctoring.
Race 6: Shamoline Warrior looks to be a fine stayer in the making and he's hard to go past. Monaco Consul's finishing burst in the Spring Champion makes him the logical danger; but is he simply another Moroney mudlark? Thinking one of those two will win unless they crunch up a couple of sedatives into Onemorenomore's feed. If he could only relax...Smash Shamoline Warrior or Monaco Consul.
Race 7: I'm going to look away form the obvious here and go with Zarita for a bit of value. She loves this track and in particular, this trip. These fillies and mares races like the Myer Classic and Coolmore aren't always kind to the favourites. Neroli is at around $8.50. Glowlamp is at $61. Glowlamp beat Neroli last start. Do the maths. Zarita and Glowlamp each way.
Race 8: Another lottery sprint with First Command a desErving favourite but am going to go with Turffontein who's in super form this prep, and Olonana who can fly 1st up.
Race 9: McClintock.
DON'T FORGET OUR MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW, WILL BE UP MONDAY!!!
Thursday, October 29, 2009
The Captain taking things into his own hands
Now Captain I know how serious you take your racing but I never thought I would see you attempt to do this!
WHAB Community Announcement
WHAB and Mr T have joined forces for a very special community announcement
Monday, October 26, 2009
Continuing Cox Plate Surliness/Greatest Melbourne Cup Preview Ever
Yes, I'm still surly after the Cox Plate. I hate it when 3.y.o's win the Cox Plate, because I am never on them. You can't line up their form with the other runners. They have 49.5kg's, even less for fillies. They are complete unknowns and occasionally one of them proves to be the real deal, but you had no way of telling this because said horse didn't even run a place in the Guineas. In hindsight, his run in the Guineas was pretty good, after making his move from the carpark; but still, it was the Guineas and he ran 5 lengths 5th. So yeah, I've been a surly bastard this week and I ain't apologising for it. Watching Shane Watson bowl the most fucked over in the history of one day cricket, to almost lose us the first one-dayer in India didn't exactly help my mood.
But life at WHAB goes on. We'll be busy this week preparing a Derby Day post, all the while working on the Greatest Melbourne Cup Preview Ever. Friday: Derby Day Preview. Monday: Greatest Melbourne Cup Preview Ever featuring the return of JB. Mark it.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
COX PLATE Preview
1. EL SEGUNDO (13) 59 Luke Nolen $15
Captain: He loves the Valley and won this race in commanding fashion in 2007 after a close segundo in 2006. In both those preparations, his form wavered somewhat in his run(s) prior to the Cox Plate. I'm guessing the same thing is going on here though it's appeared a little more alarming. The word is he got struck in the eye by a horseshoe, or as Rabs Warren might put it, "an iron bar of some description" in the Turnbull. If that's the case, then it was probably a pretty good effort. Just can't rule a line through him, I expect Little to have him sharper for this at his favourite track/distance.
Professor: I landed a big bet on this guy in the 2007 version of this race so there's some history and love here. It starts at the top. Starting from the top the theme that I'm going to hammer here is that there are a number of live chances in this one - whilst there isn't a Northerly in this bunch - the Cox is actually pretty deep. It started it's prep looking in the form of its career and has tapered off a little since but on its day it can win this.
2. ZIPPING (2) 59 Steven Arnold $17
Captain: Lloyd Williams has been talking ol' Zipping up a bit in the press so we can't take him too lightly. All I'll say is that last year was one of the weakest, if not the weakest Cox Plate field in history, and he couldn't run down Maldivian who was out of form at the time.
Professor: Pity I can't find an early Mackinnon market because that's its race for me. Probably not going well enough to trouble them this time, though the Williams horses have a way of popping up when you least expect them at this time of year so I won't say no, I just won't be betting on this.
3. VISION AND POWER (4) 59 Hugh Bowman $15
Captain: On his Doncaster winning form, he can win this. Takes forever to come into form but think he's there now. I like V & P because he reminds me of two of my heroes, T & P. "Say Terrance"..."yes Phillip"..."would you like a monkey claw?!". Sometimes racing makes sense like this. Anyways, I reckon he'll run well, not sure if he'll be winning, but he'll be somewhere thereaboots bud-dy.
Professor: Absolute knockout horse in this. Has taken a long time to get any sort of race fitness in this prep but should be at the top of its game here. Nice run in the Turnbull and even if it doesn't rain probably deserves to be at about $10 rather than the juicy $18s you can and should be snapping up right now. The monkey claw is smelly.
4. NOM DE JEU (5) 59 Michael Rodd $71
Captain: Been a little disappointing this prep but has the big plus of the cunning Rodd on board. Would never think that he is a better chance to win a Cox Plate than a Caulfield Cup. But Rodd has got plenty of roughies home before...
Professor: Doesn't look to be going well enough this prep. I'll be looking for a sign that it can figure in the Melbourne Cup but that's the only interest for me here.
5. SCENIC SHOT (6) 59 Shane Scriven $14
Captain: There's nothing like dropping a few big notes on this fella during the Brisbane Winter Carnival; it's money in the bank. $5 on the Shot to win the Doomben Cup? Yes please. $5 on the Shot to win the Brisbane Cup? Yes please, and some. He'll probably head back to the Farm next year and take out another Brisbane Cup with 65kg. I would have really liked to have seen him in the Caulfield Cup with not much weight, think he could have parked somewhere in that leading bunch and might have given it a shake. His Turnbull run was very good and on that, he's got to be some chance.
Professor: I would have smashed this in the Caulfield Cup based on its lead up work in the Turnbull. Didn't go for that race. Isn't entered in the Melbourne Cup. Those were the two I thought it could win. This is kind of a hollow feeling for me. When your favourite horse has his first tilt at Spring glory in an unsuitable race it's a lot like sitting through a rubbish comedy festival waiting for the Doug Anthony All Stars reunion only to see them play throw your arms around me instead of I fuck dogs. 2040 at Moonee Valley seems unsuitable but D Morton is Australian racings most unappreciated genius and if this was the target, fucked if I won't back it. Then I read today about it being the target of a massive bet and I know I'm seeing what I should be. Of the true stayers in this race, I'd take this above Speed Gifted or Zipping any day.
6. BLACK PIRANHA (8) 59 Tye Angland $16
Captain: A long and arduous Autumn/Winter campaign has this guy crying out for the paddock methinks. You look at it's form through the Easter Carnival in Sydney, through to the Stradbroke and there is just no comparison to what he's showing at the moment. $16 doesn't represent any great value to me, particularly when he's untried at the trip.
Professor: Captain and I are split on this horse. I think it's cherry ripe here and represents some fine value at the $16 mark. The Captain thinks it hasn't come back. I think it's gut busting run with 60 kg first up has taken a while to wear off and I'll be thinking long and hard (hee hee) about this one on race day. Got to say the Toorak run was unlucky and with a decent passage he wins that race easily.
7. SIR SLICK (11) 59 Michelle Payne *Write Your Own Ticket*
Captain: Some people have too much money on their hands. The connections of this horse have squandered hundreds of thousands of dollars in acceptance fees for races that he has absolutely no chance of winning. They could have taken some orphans around the world in a hot air balloon, visited starving kids in Africa or built a Centre For Kids Who Can't Read Good; but no, they said fuck you to the unfortunate kids of the world, we want to lead the Cox Plate for 1200m.
Professor: They'll call just about anyone Sir these days. Likely to run a 2:01 according to his bat-shit crazy owner who I'm sure sells discount Persian rugs as his day job.
8. ROAD TO ROCK (1) 59 Glyn Schofield $26
Captain: Sounds more like an AC/DC album title than a Cox Plate runner. But seriously, this is the first time ever where I could respect A J Cummings for talking up a stable roughie. His form is pretty good and his name is not Red Lord or Zavite in a Caulfield Cup. He has run some very solid races in Group 1 WFA company. He's also had a few good looks at the Valley track. Roughie of choice for bogans here. "For Road about to Rock........
Professor: At $41 in early markets. Yes please. Forget it ran in the Epsom where it clearly couldn't swim. Yep. I'm on this one each way.
9. SPEED GIFTED (12) 59 Dwayne Dunn $10
Captain: Should have run in the Caulfield Cup. Yeah, we're stilled pissed.
Professor: Should have run in the Caulfield Cup. Yeah, we're stilled pissed.
10. WHOBEGOTYOU (10) 57.5 Damien Oliver $3
Captain: Loves the Valley. Neigh, is a monster at the Valley. Loves the trip. Barring bad luck, a sloppy ride, or a Savabeel-esque finish from Manhattan Rain, he wins. But this is racing. Naturalism was the shortest price Cox Plate favourite that I can remember in 1992; he fell. That said, WBGY drifting out to $3 is enough to start getting me tempted for a massive plunge...
Professor: Deserved favourite but opening at $2.70, came up too short in a race of this quality. There are any number of sources for you to read a puff piece about this horse so I'll leave it at that.
11. HEART OF DREAMS (3) 57.5 Craig Newitt $5.50
Captain: Just as Road To Rock sounds like an Acca Dacca anthem, Heart Of Dreams sounds like it could have been a gay cowboy ballad for these guys:
I'm not that interested. He's no value here, $5.50 second favourite at WBGY's favourite track? He'll run well but ultimately, WBGY is the better horse, particularly at the Valley.
12. ROCK KINGDOM (9) 57.5 Nash Rawiller $17
Captain: Gai paid the $130,000 late entry fee at the urgings of husband Robbie (see Fine Cotton Affair). So "Rock Kingdom" might not actually be Rock Kingdom here, but instead a secret super-clone of Northerly...watch betting...seriously though, his form is alright but he just doesn't do it for me. Watch betting...
Professor: Not for me. Won a terrible Epsom in the middle of a flash flood and that's the best it's gone so not for me.
13. MANHATTAN RAIN (14) 49.5 Craig Williams $21
Captain: Maybe. Not sure he's the best 3.y.o to contest the Cox but 49.5kg and sound form says maybe. Outside gate could be the biggest problem, but if he can track Sir Slick into the race for the first 1200m and then avoid the speedbump that was Sir Slick, then maybe he could just do it.
Professor: I'm not usually a fan of the three-year-olds in this race but this is the kind of horse that I might make an exception for. As Gai constantly reminds us, this is a three year old in a five year olds body. It's chubby. Ah Gai, if I was fifty years older. It was raining. Not normal rain. Chubby Rain.
14. SO YOU THINK (7) 49.5 Glen Boss $12
Captain: Bart is not so smug here, in fact I believe he has said that he'd be surprised if this wins. Had an excursion to the outside fence at his first gallop at the Valley earlier in the week, and on that alone, I'll pass. $12?! Are you serious? On what basis? His Guineas run? Fuck me.
Professor: Boss/Cummings. I hear Adolf Hitler is the strapper for this one so the true axis of evil is involved. The likelihood of me giving a balanced view on this is minimal but I'm sure it will have fans. According to the paper of record, Glen Boss is still getting the Sydney daggers out of his back and Bart Cummings is smarter than Jesus. So You Think I want to throw up if it wins?
PROFESSOR: I'm not going to give a top four, more a value four here. I think if you are a value punter you'd want to work around 1-3-5-6-8 & 13. That's all I've got. I'll nominate Black Piranha as my top value bet for this one from Vision and Power and Chubby Rain. Scenic Shot for sentimental reasons and Road to Rock the out and out roughie that has to be worth a little bit of each way currency. This may all get thrown out the window if in the mounting yard I see a twinkle in old El Segundo's eye.
CAPTAIN: Just can't go past Whobegotyou. I'm not going to do that thing where you're sure a certain horse is going to win and talk yourself into other "value" runners, because at the end of the day, "value" means nothing if it doesn't win.
1. Whobegotyou
2. Speed Gifted
3. El Segundo
Working around those with Scenic Shot, Road To Rock and V & P.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Caulfield Cup Post-Mortem/Cox Plate Preview Friday
The first point to make post-2009 Caulfield Cup is that along the rails was the place to be. In earlier races, horses that hit the lead were angling back towards the fence when clear. So that's where we take our hat off to Brad Rawiller; he stayed as close to the fence as he could, then when he saw the opening along the rails, well, he didn't need a second invitation. It also helped him being on a horse who is far better than anyone not named Bart Cummings thought he'd be. When you're the first horse to win a Melbourne Cup, then return the following year to win a Caulfield Cup since the great Rising Fast (1954/55!), then you're really something. To give you some perspective and scope on what Viewed has done here, and the horse he has emulated:
RISING FAST
If not for a philosophical and diplomatic attitude, Rising Fast would have won a second Melbourne Cup with a mammoth 63.5kg. Owner Leicester Spring Russell, decided that interference in the '55 Melbourne Cup could go down in history as a "racing incident"...had a '55 version of Shane Dye been in his ear, there would have been a certain protest, a lot of whingeing in a funny as fuck, small Kiwi-man accent, and no doubt a second Melbourne Cup to go with two Caulfield Cups and a Cox Plate. The jockey of the the winning horse was subsequently suspended for 2 months for his part in the "racing incident". Rising Fast's Melbourne Cup win was with 59.5kg, a feat not matched or bettered since. Wow. He goes down in history as one of the greatest racehorses to ever walk the planet.
I was able to come out of last week's Caulfield Cup with a small profit thanks to Viewed and Roman Emperor. But more importantly, over the course of the day, I qualified for the final of Australia's Top Punter on November 14. I won't go on about it too much. It's not my style. No, really, enough said. After we posted our Caulfield Cup preview, the Professor couldn't stop going on and on about Viewed. He even made me republish some of that post to talk up Bart's cunning plan RE: Viewed. He sent me an e-mail Saturday morning telling me all about Viewed. After a thousand beers at Randwick though, how much do you think the Professor had on Viewed?!
With the Caulfield Cup run and won, well it must be COX PLATE TIME! As per every major Group 1, check back Friday for our Cox Plate Preview.


